SLOW BURN EDITION

30 Jul

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

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Slow burn edition

A quiet day for sure but the trends remain – dollar and gold higher together, bond yields fading, and stocks clinging near record highs but not hitting it on NASDAQ. FANG Stocks erased Friday’s gains.

It’s Beyond Meat’s earnings tonight – make or break time for shorts who are paying 144% borrow. Hope you get somehting back from that premium

UK’s FTSE exploded higher as the pound plunged ( that is why it went up because of the rhetoric from BOJO-nothing major or material released just currency move.

Italy underperformed (but only in finacial performance terms:Love to see the Italians telling the EU to go fuck themsleves, but the rest of the majors were flat.

THIS IS SIGNIFICANT: >>7246699 lb Citi To Fire Hundreds Of Traders As Revenue Tumbles

As already mentioned these places are on life support and shitigroup made the first overt move here, with regards to trading staff DB is a different animal as it “creates” financial crap and sells it to the others,

so this will set off a chain reaction within the others. Can’t continue to move money from one accounting column to anohter

to mask this problem. They are existing on swapping lines of credit as thi si the only way they can imo. Not with th eresults they all reported. Passing the stress tests right???? Bullshit.

You don’t decimate your trading ranks if you are helathy as this is how you make you revs. The folly of the FRB “passing them” should be about exposed to even the most non-financial person at this point.

Treasuries were bid after Europe closed (of course everything always gets bid when the taps are turned off in europe) and ended lower in yields on the day (but traded in a very narrow range)-see cap#3

Gold spiked up to pre-Draghi levels (ECB non-event announcement last week), But silver had a big chunk of paper dumped on it just prior to the NYMEX open. It came right back and finished strongly seeing how

the paper dumps always seemed to unleash moar selling. Gold stayed steady after Dr. Shelton said a gold-backed bond would be better and for a good reason. WE have a conterfit currency issue, TY HUSSEIN ADMINISTRATION.

and because of that it would be nigh on impossible to fix a dollar to a specified weight of gold. As long as they audit the gold-backed bonds this will work. It has not worked since they started trotting out all the super notes

all over the world making promises they never kept. This is how we ‘recovered’ from 2008. Grennspan took the super notes around the worls and bailed us out. It was NOT the TARP or anyting else. All about back-room deals there.

As the Fed’s rate decision approaches Wednesday, it’s unclear how many members will vote in favor of an anticipated rate cuts, expect to receive a majority vote.

Well we know Boston Fed pres. (stein) and Kansas City Pres are going to vote against as they have already made intentions clear. This disagreement will furhter implode the credibility that the FRB has

and it’s not much imo. Ths is a perfect strategy to let them expose themselves and fight it out in the policy meeting. We will not have details of that meeting until the

meeting minutes are released however the votes will be known when the release is made. There have been one or more dissenters at 37% of Fed rate meetings since 1987,

in the last major easing cycle (2007-08), someone dissented at almost every meeting, and usually for tighter policy. In that cycle, the Fed took the fed funds rate range to zero to 0.25%, the lowest in history.

There was a seven year gap before its next rate move, and in 2015, the Fed raised rates, and did it eight more times, the final one in December.

but there’s the potential for a higher than normal divide at the two-day Fed meeting that starts Tuesday because of the recent improvements in economic data.

These analysts can’t even read the data as most of them are not taking much of a stand. You may not always be right but fucking make a call-FIRED ALL OF YOU!!.

CME data reflects position bets and the FOMC can ignore this if they choose to. If they do it’s going to be a drop down fight between the FRB. POTUS and the owners of the system. POPCORN AT THE READY FOR WEDS.==Part 1 of 2==

part 2/2

West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery CLU19, +1.10% on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 67 cents, or 1.2%, to close at $56.87 a barrel, while October Brent crude BRNV19, -0.11%, the global benchmark, rose 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $63.62 a barrel on the ICE Europe exchange.

Oil has struggled to rally convincingly despite a string of six weekly declines in U.S. inventories and rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and other countries, notably the U.S. and Britain in the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil transport, with around a third of global seaborne oil trade passing through the waterway.

Washington’s decision last May to pull out of a 2015 Iran nuclear deal set the stage for increased animosities in the region. On Monday, the U.K. sent a warship to escort its vessels in the area and warned Tehran that it must release a British-flagged vessel seized this month.

That tall wick this morning pretty much confirms this, no conviction at all.

in ooops news

Some Headlines

Uber lays off 400 employees in marketing team

Ride-hailing company Uber Technologies Inc said on Monday it laid off 400 people globally from its marketing team.

As of Dec. 31, Uber had 22,263 employees, with 1,951 employees in sales and marketing team, according to the company’s filing.

Uber debuted on the New York Stock Exchange on May 10 at an IPO price of $45. The stock is currently trading nearly 2% below the IPO price.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-layoffs/uber-lays-off-400-employees-in-marketing-team-idUSKCN1UO24X

https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI?p=^DJI

https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

Guggenheim Expects Stocks to Crash 50% In The Next Recession

One could get whiplash listening to Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd’s rapidly changing opinions these days.

Back on May 29, the weightlifting CIO of the $265 billion asset manager, made a gloomy forecast on CNBC, predicting that the stock market sell-off is likely far from over, and said stocks would go “somewhere below the lows in December.” Near term, he saw an “immediate move” down to around 2,730 on the before it drops further. Oh, and he also said the next move by the Fed will be a rate hike.

Oops.

Not even two months later, everything miraculously changed, and on July 15, again on CNBC, Minerd changed his tune by 180 degrees, and no longer seeing any crash, said that he now thinks the S&P 500 could rise 15% and approach 3,500 before the end of year, comparing the current market environment to a 1998 rally amid interest rate cuts.

“This rally — whether you’re looking at bonds, you’re looking at stocks, high yield, pick whatever you want — is all being driven by liquidity. And the central banks around the world have basically signaled that they are going to step on the accelerator,” Minerd said adding that the Fed has “kind of hit the panic button” and that “you’re going to see the money flow out of the central banks into bonds, which will free up capital and that will naturally find another place to migrate to and ultimately it will end up in the hands of stocks.”

And so, Minerd now had all bases covered, with a soundbite to say he was right if stocks crashed, and another if they melted up by another 500 points. Actually, there was one base that needed covering: the same one that Trump has been pounding every single day, namely that if it all goes pear-shaped, it will be the Fed’s fault (he is actually right about that), and today, Minerd – undaunted by his recent dismal track record in making public predictions – slammed the Fed saying that the Fed should hike interest rates, not cut them.

The consequences of the Fed’s actions in the next week – the U.S. central bank is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point – could be with us for much longer than we think, culminating in the next recession and increasing the risk to financial stability.

In the meantime, the Fed could be delivering yet another sugar high to the economy that doesn’t address underlying structural problems created by powerful demographic forces that are constraining output and depressing prices.

Like we said, this time Minerd was correct, though we wonder: why does it take all these sophisticated financial professionals a decade to realize (or admit) what we have been saying since 2009. Must have something to do with vested year-end bonus options…

In any case, just in case everyone wasn’t completely confused yet, today’s Minerd released yet another research report in which he tried to predict not only when the next recession would hit (“we maintain our view that the recession could begin as early as the first half of 2020, but will be watching for signs that the dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could extend the cycle”), but also how severe it will be.

It is here that things get ugly, because as Guggenheim notes, credit markets “are likely to be hit harder than usual in the recession. This stems from the record high ratio of corporate debt to GDP and the likelihood of a massive fallen angel wave.” With that in mind, the bank notes that “when recessions hit, the magnitude of the associated bear market in stocks is driven by how high valuations were in the preceding bull market.” And given that valuations reached quite elevated levels in this cycle, Guggenheim expects “a severe bear market of 40–50 percent in the next recession.”

Here are some additional details, starting with Guggenheim’s framework for when the next recession will hit: here, the bank notes that its Recession Probability Model rose across all horizons in the first quarter of 2019, and while near-term the recession probability remains subdued, over the next 24 months recession probability more than doubled compared to the third quarter reading. The deterioration in leading indicators, further flattening of the yield curve, and tightening of monetary policy all contributed to rising recession risks through the first quarter. And since Guggenheim expects these trends to continue and growth to weaken in 2019, it expects recession risk to rise throughout the year.

More

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-29/guggenheim-expects-stocks-crash-50-next-recession